Interactive Model of U.S. Government Financials
By clicking on the link below you can download an Excel spreadsheet of the U.S. Federal Government's fiscal model and perform "What If'' scenarios by changing key variables. The legend at the bottom of the spreadsheet explains these key variables which are highlighted in yellow. This model demonstrates the dramatic difference between the "Government Reported" Cash-based Deficit and the GAAP-basis Deficit. It also demonstrates the magnitude of the total Federal Obligation as compared to the Federal Debt.
After clicking on this link you will see a popup window that will give you an option to "open" or "save" the spreadsheet. Of course you may do either but I would recommend "open" to begin interacting with the spreadsheet.
You may then be asked to "enable editing" (at the top of the screen) to enter data into the key variables since the spreadsheet comes from the internet.
One interesting scenario is to see how much we need to raise taxes in fiscal year 2015 (cell k6) to balance the Cash-based Budget i.e. get the Cash Deficit to zero which means that we would not be adding any new Debt. That level of tax as a percent of GDP is about 24%.
And then try to balance the GAAP-basis budget i.e. get to a GAAP Deficit of zero which means that we are not adding any new Obligation.
That's right we can't raise taxes enough to balance the GAAP-basis budget!!! The lowest GAAP-basis deficit we can achieve is when taxes are 43% of GDP and that still yeilds a deficit of $5 Trillion. That is the point on the "Laffer Curve" for this USAPonzi financial model where tax revenues are maximized.
noun: Laffer curve; plural noun: Laffer curves
a supposed relationship between economic activity and the rate of taxation that suggests the existence of an optimum tax rate that maximizes tax revenue.
USAPonzi Fiscal Model
One observation that should be noted from the fiscal model is that the annual interest on our Federal Obligation is larger than our income (tax revenue) throughout this planning period from 2009 to 2023. Now just think about that for a minute, our interest expense is larger than our income. This means we are currently having to borrow "virtual" money to pay the interest on our borrowed and "virtually borrowed" money.
The actual data for FY2008-FY2014 and the estimates for FY2015 were sourced from www.usgovernmentspending.com.